Middle East Monthly
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September 9, 2008

Israel’s Next Prime Minister



Scandal-bitten Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced that he will not be his party's leader going into the next election. Olmert, who has led Israel for the past 2½ years, is said to have accepted cash in envelopes from an American businessman. For months he has been under pressure to step down. Olmert has said he will resign once his Kadima party elects a new leader. Speculation is that the most likely person to take over the leadership slot at Kadima is Israel’s current foreign minister—Tzipi Livni.

Livni, age 49, is the most powerful woman in Israel since Golda Meir, Israel’s prime minister in the 1970s. Livni is well respected abroad and at home, and is a friend of Condolezza Rice. She has successfully been able to avoid scandals that have felled other Israeli government officials. In May of 2007, after a harsh government report criticized prime minister Olmert for his handling of Israel’s war against Lebanon, Livni called on the prime minister to resign and said she would pursue the post of leader in the Kadima party. Kadima is the largest party in the Israeli parliament.

With Olmert stepping down there is now a power struggle as to who will lead the party. The leader of Kadima will then have to face a general election contest that will most likely involve going against Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu. Either Livni or Benjamin Netanyahu is rumored to have the best chance of becoming Israel’s next prime minister.
Livni joined Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, after leaving the army with the rank of lieutenant. She was stationed in Paris and travelled throughout Europe in pursuit of Arab terrorists. According to former colleagues she was involved in operations to kill Palestinian terrorists in European capitals.

She is said to have an indirect role in the assassination of a leading Palestine Liberation Organization leader who was shot dead by a Mossad hit squad in Athens, Greece in the summer of 1983. Linvi absolutely refuses to discuss her work within Mossad. In time she became a corporate lawyer and carved out a successful career as a corporate attorney. It is said that she is tough minded and intelligent with an I.Q. of 150. She is married to Naftali Spitzer, an advertising executive and they have two boys of whom she is very protective, Omri and Yuval.

Should Israel be ruled by the Jews only or should Palestine be divided in two states, one Israeli, one Palestinian. This question has plagued Livni. When visiting London a few years ago with then-Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, Livni met with members of the Jewish community. One individual asked her if she had abandoned her dream of a Greater Land of Israel (ruled by the Jews only). Her reply was sincere and thoughtful. She said, the dream she had grown up with—a Palestine ruled by Jews alone—was not the best solution today. Two states, she now believed was the only workable solution for both Jews and Palestinians.

Livni was a leading voice in Sharon’s Gaza’s pullout strategy. She decided to follow Sharon, leaving the Likud party to join the new center-right Kadima party. Today she is Olmert’s deputy Prime Minister in Kadima.

Western observers say Livni at first seems to be soft but the real truth is that underneath her perceived softness is a tough woman. She is ardently defensive of her country and if elected prime minister is most likely to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities—so say those who are familiar with her thinking.

How is she perceived within Israel. Ari Shavit, a political columnist for the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz writes, “She is perceived as non-corrupt, as Mrs. Clean amid a crisis of low moral standards within Israeli politics—an elegant, female figure among brutal, unworthy politicians”.

Who else may become Israel’s next prime minister other than Livni? Shaul Mofaz is the current Minister of Transportation. Mofaz served for years in the Israeli Military and was promoted to major general. He also served as minister of defense for nearly 5 years until 2006. This past June, Mofaz stated that Israel would attack Iran if they continued their nuclear weapons program. If Livni stumbles politically, Mofaz may gain more national attention.

And let’s not forget Benjamin Netanyahu—leader of the Likud party. He served as prime minister from 1996-1999. If elected he promises to dismantle Hamas as a terrorist threat in Gaza. If Livni does not become prime minister, we may be looking at Netanyahu as Israel’s next prime minister. Netanyahu is a hawk who is anxious to confront Iran before Iran develops that first nuclear bomb.

With Iran on the verge of producing a bomb and Israel close to electing a new national leader the Middle East is the region to watch in the months ahead.